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HYPERION FUND – JANUARY LETTER

Hyperion Fund Update
8 Mar by Mason Resch

Dear Investors, Partners, and Friends,

Hopes for a dovish Federal Reserve fueled a stock market rally in January. As many Fed governors publicly announced thoughts that rate hikes could end soon, markets took these forecasts that the long-awaited “pivot” could come as early as the February meeting. Interest rates declined to their lowest levels since September 2022, the S&P climbed 6.3%, and the Goldman Sachs Most Shorted Index (a measure of the performance of the stocks with the highest short interest percentage) rose 24.2%, a testament to the increasing risk appetite in markets.

The Directional Spread Strategy recorded a small loss for the month, as the steady grind higher was only briefly interrupted mid-month by a short-lived market decline. We were able to capture gains on some ratio put spreads during that pullback, but the rally quickly resumed, launching the S&P back near the psychologically-important level of 4100, an area that has been resistant to further gains in the recent months.

The Tactical Strategy gained in January, as the CBOE Volatility Index (“VIX”) dropped and became more closely aligned with actual market volatility. Comparing the CBOE Realized Volatility Index (“RVOL”) to the VIX shows how both indexes reached lows not visited since April 2022. When there is a large disconnect between these, and RVOL exceeds the VIX, selling options is a less-attractive proposition. Because this relationship reverted to historical norms, more attractive opportunities arose and we were able to capitalize on them and produce profits in the program.

In the options space, one subject that has been heavily discussed lately is the notion that the VIX is “broken”. Having declined materially to its lowest point since the start of 2022, many feel that the potential risks in markets should cause this “Fear Gauge” to be higher, but the VIX is simply a measure of volatility in options with expirations ranging between 23-37 days in the future. However, many options have expirations much shorter than that timeframe, and therefore are completely ignored by the VIX calculation. Specifically, options that expire on the same day that they are traded (known as “0 DTE” options, or zero days until expiration) have exploded in popularity. Since they do not impact the VIX directly, the increased trading is not reflected in that index. Additionally, we would argue that the increased volume of trading in these options has opened a new source of market-disrupting potential. The leverage that traders can employ with these positions can be significantly greater than those with longer expirations, and this exposure is underappreciated by the market.

Should a material late-day rally or decline occur, the losses from these options could be substantial for the aggressive speculators who employ them. We will continue to monitor this space and factor in the potential for negative ramifications from this previously quiet corner when searching for new trading opportunities.

As always, thank you for supporting Le Mans Trading and entrusting us with your investment capital. If you would like to learn more or have any questions, please feel free to reach out via the contact information below.

ByMason Resch

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  • any individual with sophisticated experience in financial and business matters, and whose own net worth, taken together with the net worth of his spouse, exceeds $1,000,000, including a Self-Directed Individual Retirement Plan (IRA).
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Category I QEP

  • A “qualified purchaser” as defined in section 2(a)(51)(A) of the Investment Company Act of 1940 (the “Investment Company Act”).
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  • A registered CPO who has been registered and active as such for two years or who operates pools which, in the aggregate, have total assets in excess of $5,000,000.
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  • A commodity pool operator, commodity trading advisor, or investment adviser of an exempt pool; Or I am a principal of the CPO, CTA or IA; Or I am an employee of the CPO, CTA, or IA that is other than a clerical, administrative or secretarial employee, and who participated in the investment activities of the CPO, CTA or IA for at least 12 months.
  • An employee of, or an agent engaged to perform legal, accounting, auditing or other financial services for, the exempt pool or the commodity pool operator or commodity trading advisor (other than an employee or agent performing solely clerical, secretarial or administrative functions with regard to such person or its investments); and, I am an accredited investor and I have been employed or engaged by the exempt pool, commodity pool operator or commodity trading advisor for at least 24 months.
  • An entity as to which a notice of eligibility has been filed pursuant to CFTC Regulation 4.5 and which is operated in accordance with such rule and in which all unit owners or participants, other than the commodity trading advisor claiming relief, are QEPs.

OR

Category II QEP

There are two situations under this Category II QEP: Situation One or Situation Two (Non-US Person).

Situation One:

note: requires any of the 3 paragraphs below and any of the subsequent 12 paragraphs

  • Owns securities (including pool participations) of issuers not affiliated with such participant and other investments with an aggregate market value of at least $2,000,000.
  • Has or has had on deposit with a futures commission merchant, for my own account at some time during the six-month period preceding the date of this sale in the exempt pool, at least $200,000 in exchange-specified initial margin and option premiums for commodity interest transactions.
  • Owns a portfolio comprised of a combination of the funds or property specified in the two paragraphs immediately preceding this paragraph in which the sum of the funds or property equals at least one hundred percent, each expressed as a percentage of the minimum amount required thereunder. (An example of a composite portfolio would be $1,000,000 in securities and $100,000 in exchange specified initial margin).

AND IS

  • an investment company (i.e., mutual fund) registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940 or a business development company as defined in Section 2(a)(48) of that Act not formed for the specific purpose of investing in the exempt pool.
  • a bank as defined in Section 3(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933 (the “Securities Act”), or any savings and loan association or other institution as defined in Section 3(a)(5)(A) of the Securities Act acting for my own account or for the account of a qualified eligible participant.
  • an insurance company as defined in Section 2(13) of the Securities Act acting for my own account or for the account of a qualified eligible participant.
  • a plan established and maintained by a state, its political subdivisions, or any agency or instrumentality of a state or its political subdivisions, for the benefit of its employees, if such plan has total assets in excess of $5,000,000.
  • an employee benefit plan within the meaning of the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974, and the investment decisions are made by a plan fiduciary, as defined in Section 3(21) of such Act, which is a bank, a savings and loan association, an insurance company, or a registered investment adviser; or that the employee benefit plan has total assets in excess of $5,000.000; or, if the plan is self-directed, that investment decisions for, or the decisions as to the types of investment alternatives under, the plan are made solely by persons that are qualified participants.
  • a private business development company as defined in Section 202(a)(22) of the investment Advisers Act of 1940.
  • an organization described in Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code, with total asset in excess of $5,000,000 (e.g., charitable organization, foundation, etc.).
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  • a natural person whose individual net worth, or joint net worth with my spouse, at the time of purchase in the exempt pool exceeds $1,000,000.
  • a natural person who had an individual income in excess of $200,000 in each of the two most recent years or joint income with my spouse in excess of $300,000 in each of the two most recent years and has a reasonable expectation of reaching the same income level in the current year.
  • a pool, trust, insurance company separate account or bank collective trust, with total assets in excess of $5,000,000, not formed for the specific purpose of participating in the exempt pool, and whose participation in the exempt pool is directed by a qualified eligible participant; Provided, that except where the pool, trust, insurance company separate account or bank collective trust would constitute a qualified eligible participant under Situation Three below, no more than 10 percent of the fair market value of the assets of such entity are used to purchase units in exempt pools.
  • any entity in which all of the unit owners or participants are persons that meet any of the criteria listed under Situation One above.

Situation Two:

  • not a United States Person for purposes of CFTC Rule 4.7. For the purposes of this paragraph, the term “United States” means Unites States, its states, territories or possessions, or an enclave of the United States government, its agencies or instrumentalities. The following persons are not considered to be “United State persons”:
  1. A natural person who is not a resident of the United States,
  2. A partnership, corporation or other entity, other than an entity organized principally for passive investment, organized under the laws of a foreign jurisdiction and which has its principal place of business in a foreign jurisdiction,
  3. An estate or trust, the income of which is not subject to United States income tax regardless of source,
  4. An entity organized principally for passive investment such as a pool, investment company or other similar entity Provided, that units of participation in the entity held by United States persons represent in the aggregate less than 10% of the beneficial interest in the entity, and that such entity was not formed principally for the purpose of facilitating investment by United States persons in a pool with respect to which the operator is exempt from certain requirements of Part 4 of the Commission’s regulations by virtue of its participants being non-United States persons,
  5. A pension plan for the employees, officers, or principals of an entity organized and with its principal place of business outside the United States.