Dear Investors, Partners, and Friends,
Ramifications of the Federal Reserve’s (“Fed’s”) relentless rate hike campaign continue to surface in many places throughout the world. The most direct impact is seen in the U.S. Treasury yields, where the 10-year note eclipsed 4% in October (and reached a high of 4.33%). And, while the Euro and British Pound exchange rates have stabilized, the Japanese Yen continued to weaken versus the U.S. dollar. We have repeatedly discussed in our commentaries that the Fed’s strong inflation response will likely have future unintended consequences, and it appears that those effects are beginning to surface.
One example is the news that the UK’s pension system was perilously close to insolvency in late September and only government intervention to buy bonds prevented a potentially catastrophic outcome. Scenarios such as this are not surprising and if the Fed continues on this path, as is widely expected, other fissures are certain to reveal themselves. We anticipate this volatility and uncertainty to continue and, coupled with the current U.S. midterm elections, the political environment may be the next area of concern, or euphoria, for the stock market.
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